The Two Hundred and Eighty Million Disaster

There are approximately three hundred million people in the United States of America. There is an avian flu (H5N1 strain) that is currently spreading across the world and is extremely lethal to the birds it infects. There have been people who have contracted this flu:

French authorities report that three people who came back from a holiday in Thailand probably have bird flu. The three people had been to an ornithological zoo (bird zoo) in Thailand - they were in contact with the birds.

Since so many people live in close proximity to birds in Asia, it is only a matter of time before this strain not only passes to humans but passes from human to human there. Once this happens, we have the dreaded pandemic.

So, what do we do? Well, since there is no effective vaccine for bird flu, and it would take too long to develop one once it started to spread in humans to curtail its spread, the only measure available would be to treat cases with an antiviral medication.

As detailed if previous posts, the only effective antiviral medication at this time is probably Tamiflu. Not only is Tamiflu probably effective in the treatment of bird flu, it may be prophylactic. The US Government wants to stockplie 20 million doses of Tamiflu (courses? the current recommended dose is 75mg b.i.d. x 5 days, or ten doses; it is unknown what the real prophylactic dose would be). So, 20 million Americans will be protected from death!

Where does this leave the other 280 million Americans? And, more to the point, who is going to decide who gets Tamiflu(and lives) and who doesn't (and dies)?

Now the manufacture of Tamiflu requires Shikimic Acid as a starting product (see previous posts.) Here is the structure for Shikimic acid: It seems to me that any first year graduate student in Organic Chemistry should be able to synthesize this stuff in his/her sleep. What are they teaching them at MIT these days?

It is inconceivable to me that a country that is willing to put $280 Billion into a bottomless pit called Iraq ($1,000 for every man woman and child in the US of A) is not capable of putting a few pennies into the organic synthesis of Tamiflu.

Geez Louise!