Can Iraq become a stable democracy in the near term? No. Not according to the commission convened by Virginia Republican Frank Wolf and led by Bush 41's main man, James Baker.Then we have from Juan Cole:
The Shiites and Kurds hold a majority in parliament, so that any time they can agree on an issue, they can always outvote the Sunni Arabs. This dynamic is one of the reasons for which Sunni Arabs reject the new political system. They had been in power via the old Baath Party, and now they would lose every vote on issues important to them.Very soon, but not before the election, George W. Bush is going to be forced to publicly state that the effort to "establish democracy" in Iraq has been an utter failure. It is unclear what will happen in that tragic country once he does so.
As Juan Cole has pointed out many time, the country is already in a Civil War. It is hard to imagine it becoming worse.
On top of this, it is also likely, as we learned today, that our only major ally in this war, Britain, will close up shop and depart. It is even more unclear what will happen then.
It now seems rational to most of us that we should accept "defeat" and withdraw our troops. If this means a reconfiguration in the mid-East with a dramatic increase in the price of oil and a mortal threat to Israel, well, so be it.
On the other hand, it is possible that the peoples of the mid-East are not so stupid as stupid-Americans believe. When the price of oil will goes up, they will certainly realize that it is their main cash cow. It is hard to imagine them working against that. And they won't attack Israel because Israel, for the moment, has 200 nuclear weapons.
The last is a sticking point. For if Iran and Syria are continued to be denied nuclear weapons, as I fervently hope they will be, it seems entirely reasonable for Israel to go non nuclear, as did South Africa not too long ago, as long as their existence is guaranteed.
However, I am dreaming. I do not think that reason determines very much these days.
1 comment:
The clue to understanding the impasse, I think, is that Israel does not just want to exist (which in reality it has been assured of for a very long time) but it wants to go on EXPANDING. To do so it must be seen to be DEFENDING itself.
The last thing it wants is peace. Israel needs to be the solitary nuclear power in the region to continue to expand.
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