Reading the Tea Leaves

Creating Scenarios.
Underlying facts:
1. Bush is president until January, 2009. Cheney is vice president until January, 2009.
2. The Republicans have control of Congress until January, 2007.
3. The Republicans have control of the Supreme Court for the next 20 years.
4. There are 130,000 American soldiers in Iraq.
5. Iraq is in turmoil and close to Civil War.
6. America is in many respects insolvent and only survives financially by borrowing money from China. Eventually this debt will have to be paid off.
7. Health care is in disarray and close to the breaking point.
8. The economy is unstable.
9. New Orleans is in ruins.
10. The NSA is spying on Americans without a warrant.
11. Most of the World is anti American, not just anti Bush.
12. Israel, Pakistan, India and North Korea have nuclear weapons.
13. Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons.
14. Iraq never did have nuclear weapons, or large stores of nerve gas, or large stores of anthrax.
15. The American people are discouraged.

So, what are the scenarios that can be constructed from the current situation?
Scenario I (optimistic):
Republicans sense that the country is turning against Bush and therefore do not support his more outlandish proposals such as: privatized social security, medical savings accounts, war with Iran, overturning Roe vs Wade. In spite of this, the Republicans are still beaten soundly at the polls in November, 2006. A Democratic Congress and Senate is sworn in in January, 2007. Immediately, the chairmanships of the committees are changed and the composition of the committees is weighed in favor of the Democrats. Investigations of the Bush administration are begun to include the use of pre War intelligence (Downing Street Memos), torture (Abu Gharib, secret CIA centers in eastern Europe, Afghanistan and Guantanamo), use of the NSA to spy on Americans, lobbying reform, and other items. Impeachment proceedings of President Bush and Vice President Cheney are begun. Nancy Pelosi is elected House Majority leader and is in line to become President of the United States of America if Bush and Cheney are impeached.

President Pelosi negotiates with the United Nations to establish a multinational force without American involvement to serve as peace keepers in Iraq. President Pelosi negotiates with Iran and Russia to provide nuclear fuel for Iran's reactors and Iran stops any further work on nuclear weapons. President Pelosi supports the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in the Senate and it is passed by a wide margin. North Korea is persuaded to give up its nuclear weapons following the example of South Africa. Pakistan and India give up their nuclear weapons. All States are vigorously monitored for nuclear activity. Nuclear weapon labs in the US are shut down. We decrease the number of weapons the a bare minimum.

President Pelosi begins trade negotiations with the European Union, South America and Asia to stablize currencies and rationalize trade. Negotiations are brought into the United Nations.

President Pelosi recognizes Cuba and reestablishes good relationships with Venezuela.

House and Senate Democratic leaders led by Ben Cardin, newly elected Senator from Maryland, introduce legislation establishing a national health plan based on Medicare. While vigorously fought by the pharmacy and insurance industries, this passes and the reorganization of medicine is begun. Tax breaks are reversed and we begin to pay back the deficit.

Legislation is introduced to curb predatory business practices such as outsourcing, off shore corporations, excessive profits in the oil, pharmacy and health care businesses. The flow of capitol out of the US is halted and, because of an increased standard of living, businesses begin to thrive.

I could go on.